A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
